The following audio episode provides an in depth discussion of this weeks news from "The Edge".
The Weekly Edge – Up to 10th April 2025
Brought to you by the team at Gilt Investments
Welcome back to The Weekly Edge, your trusted compass in a world where markets swing harder than a toddler on red cordial. Every day, we break down what matters most in The Edge—and each week, we pull together the big themes and sharper insights to help you stay one step ahead in fixed-income markets.
Tariffs, Tantrums & Treasury Shakes: Markets Are Feeling It
If you’ve had the vague feeling that markets have been behaving like they’ve had one too many espressos this week—you’re not wrong. Global trade tensions have gone from “worrying” to “full-blown economic soap opera,” with Trump launching a fresh round of tariffs that hit China and Europe like a freight train. The numbers? Try 34%, even 50% in some cases.
China is already threatening to retaliate (because, of course), possibly by weakening its currency—a move that screams, “Let’s see how many global investors we can spook before breakfast.”
The result? Equities wobble, bonds rally, and everyone rushes to gold like it’s 2008 all over again. Spoiler alert: it’s not. It’s messier.
The RBA's Dilemma: Watch, Wait, and Maybe Nap
Closer to home, things aren’t exactly chill. Consumer confidence took a nosedive, with a 6% drop overall—and a 10% slump for anyone polled after the tariff news broke. Apparently, Australians aren’t feeling too great about the global economic equivalent of a slow-motion car crash.
Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank is stuck in limbo. Inflation hasn’t disappeared, but growth is wobbling. Rate hikes? Unlikely. Rate cuts? Not just yet. So we wait… and wait… and hope the RBA eventually decides to do something.
Banking Drama: ANZ’s $250M “Oops” Fund
Speaking of local tremors, ANZ was told to cough up an extra $250 million in capital by APRA after the regulator took a long, hard look at their risk management practices and basically said, “Nope.” That’s $250 million that won’t be going into lending—and it’s a reminder that banking stability isn’t just about profits, it’s about trust.
Oh, and the irony? Less than a year after the ACCC failed to block ANZ’s merger with Suncorp, the regulators are already back saying, “Actually… we’re not so sure about this.” Policy consistency: not exactly a national sport.
Powell’s Pep Talk: “Higher Prices, Lower Growth”
Over in the U.S., Fed Chair Jerome Powell made headlines again by warning that inflation could rise even as growth slows. Translation: stagflation vibes are creeping in, and central banks might need more than their usual bag of tricks.
Meanwhile, oil prices dipped (bad news for growth), and gold pushed toward $3,000 (bad news for optimism). If you’re wondering why everyone’s suddenly interested in the price of gold, just remember: when the world gets weird, investors go medieval.
Why Fixed Income Still Makes Sense
In a week where tariffs, central banks, and banking regulators are all playing economic whack-a-mole, fixed income remains the voice of reason. Yields are adjusting, credit spreads are telling you what the market really thinks, and bonds are still one of the few places where risk can be managed rather than just endured.
At Gilt Investments, we live and breathe this stuff. Whether you're navigating rate risk, managing duration, or just trying to sleep at night without checking Bloomberg at 2am—we’re here to help.
Final Thought: Don’t Panic, But Also… Don’t Be Complacent
Yes, things are jumpy. Yes, the world feels a bit more chaotic by the day. But it’s in these moments of uncertainty that real investors make their edge. Don’t chase headlines. Don’t overreact. Do have a plan—and make sure it includes a strategy for fixed income that actually makes sense.
If that sounds like a relief, give us a call. Because staying calm in a crisis isn’t a luxury—it’s a skill.
That’s all for this week.
Stay sharp, stay steady, and we’ll see you next time on The Weekly Edge.
— Brought to you by the team at Gilt Investments
Disclaimer
This publication has been prepared by Gilt Investments Pty Ltd and is for informational purposes only. It contains general financial product advice that does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation, or needs.
Before acting on any information contained herein, you should consider whether it is appropriate for your circumstances and seek independent professional advice.
While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the information provided, Gilt Investments, its directors, employees, and agents make no representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the completeness, timeliness, or accuracy of the content. Any opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.
Gilt Investments disclaims all liability for any loss or damage arising from reliance on the information contained in this report. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and all investments involve risk.